UK Migration Data Overhaul 2026: ONS Confirms Change to Visa and Admin Data for Migration Estimates
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has officially stopped using the International Passenger Survey as the basis for its long-term international migration (LTIM) estimates. On April 23, they released a research update that explains how they are now using Home Office visa records, travel manifests, and Department for Work & Pensions data. This change means that migration numbers will now be based on actual arrivals and exits instead of what travellers say they want to do. The ONS has been testing different methods since 2019, but the April 2026 update makes the new method standard for all groups of migrants: non-EU visa holders, EU+ nationals, and British citizens who are coming back. In the future, there will also be models for persons with Indefinite Leave to Remain, overstayers, and those on “3C leave” while their applications are still being processed in the nation. This change is important for mobility managers because visa issuance, not survey extrapolation, will determine the headline migration figures that affect pay thresholds, shortage-occupation lists, and predictions of public-service capacity. The Home Office should be able to set annual allocation caps or fee levels more easily if it has accurate counts of sponsored workers and their dependents. This is because survey methods take time to get results. In May, the ONS will release its first full LTIM series under the new system. It is asking businesses for feedback on how easy the data is to use.
Multinational companies could be able to use HR analytics solutions that connect to the Integrated Data Service to compare mobile workforces to more detailed breakdowns by nationality and sector. Companies that hire workers should expect stricter checks between visa grants and PAYE records as datasets come together. In the meanwhile, policy lobby groups will probably use the new numbers in arguments about the wages limit for Skilled Worker visas and the proposed “earned settlement” path.