Who Remains in the UK and What the New Government Report Means: UK Skilled Worker Visa Stay Rates 2026
New UK Government Report Reveals Skilled Worker Visa Stay Trends
UK Skilled Worker Visa Stay Rates 2026: The research follows 916,000 migrant travels from 2014 to 2024. It analyses rates of staying by industry, employment, age, pay, gender, nationality and UK location. Below we outline the important findings, including graphics, and the implications for sponsors and visa holders.
A new government study has for the first time outlined what happens to migrants who arrive to the UK on a Skilled Worker visa.
The results matter to all sponsor licence holders and potential migrants working out their road to settlement. If you work in immigration, some of the trends will be familiar. Others are changing how we should look about who makes a life long term in the UK.
If you have a sponsor licence and are considering your workforce plan, or you are a Skilled Worker visa holder considering your route to settlement, it is useful understanding the patterns in this study. If you want to discuss what they signify for your circumstance, book a consultation with our staff.
What is “Stay Rate” in This Report?
One thing to be clear on right at the beginning. The report measures if someone still has lawful UK immigration status. This means a valid visa, indefinite leave to remain or British citizenship. It does not measure if they are still physically in the country. There are no reliable exit checks in the UK therefore the report assumes someone has left the country when their visa expires and is not renewed. Where we refer to migrants “staying” or having “remained” this is shorthand for possessing lawful immigration status, not confirmed physical presence.
Finding 1: Stay Rates Increased With Each Successive Cohort
The five-year retention rate has been on the rise. Of migrants coming through this route in 2014, 74% still have valid UK immigration status after five years. The figure increased to 85% for those who arrived in 2019.
This regression analysis demonstrates this is not merely because of a changing composition of people in newer cohorts. When 2014 was the reference year, odds of being in valid status after five years were 1.27 times as likely in 2015, 1.36 in 2016, 1.50 in 2017, 1.70 in 2018, and 1.91 in 2019. “These are statistically significant findings even when controlling for age, industry, nationality and other factors.
The trend began well before the immigration adjustments of December 2020, after Brexit, crucially. There is no one policy change behind it.
Finding 2: Workers in Health and Care Are Considerably More Likely to Stay Than Other Sectors
The single biggest difference in stay rates is industry. For the migrants employed in human health and social work activities the five-year stay rate was 88.2%. For migrants in all other industries combined, that number was 76.4%.
Nurses are the shining stars of health care. Of the frequent occupations in the statistics, nurses on a Skilled Worker visa were the most likely to remain, with 94% still holding valid UK immigration status five years later.
At the opposite end of the scale, “natural and social science professionals” (SOC 2010 code 2119) had the lowest stay rate among common occupations, at 57 per cent. The MAC observes that academic researchers dominate this profession group, with all firms in this SOC code sponsoring more than 100 visas in the data being universities.
This is confirmed by the regression analysis. The odds of staying for nurses was 3.93 compared with all other jobs (significantly greater odds) whereas the odds of staying for natural and social science professionals was only 0.35.
Very high early stay rates are also seen among care workers and home carers, first added to the Skilled Worker route in 2022. We don’t yet have enough data to tell if this will hold in the longer term.
The MAC provides several possible explanations for the high healthcare retention. This is due to a combination of factors including high and sustained demand for labour in the NHS and social care, the administrative burden of transferring nursing and medical licences to another country, the higher number of dependants that health and care visa holders tend to bring with them, and the female-skewed gender mix in healthcare (women tend to have higher stay rates).
What This Means for Sponsors
If you have a sponsor licence in health or social care, the data supports what many in the field already know. These workers generally stick around longer, which has ramifications for workforce planning, retention tactics and how you help personnel down the path to settlement. We often help care providers with sponsor licence applications and ongoing compliance audits.
Finding 3: Age Affects and There Is a Steep Decline Above 45
There is an obvious pattern. Those coming to the UK aged 45 and over are less likely to maintain valid status in the long run.
The difference between the age bands below 45 is quite small. The decline begins above 45 and is more significant for people over 55.
Controlling for other variables, the regression analysis of the MAC demonstrates that the association is actually U-shaped. The odds ratios compared to those entering aged <25 years were:
- Age 25 to 34: 1.31 (more likely to stay)
- Age 35 to 44: 1.14 (more likely to stay)
- Age 45-54: 0.85 (less likely)
- Age 55+ : 0.53 (considerably lower odds)
Finding 4: Salary – The Counter-Intuitive Finding
This is one of the report’s most startling conclusions. It is a popular perception that the UK is better at keeping high incomes. The data suggests the opposite.
Migrants arriving on less than £40,000 a year had the greatest stay rates of any pay level. The MAC’s regression model then compared all the other pay categories to this reference group of under-£40,000, and the probabilities of remaining were reduced in each higher band.
The MAC says top earners have more possibilities for international careers and less financial obstacles to moving. Lower earners may be less mobile, more attached to the communities they have formed in the UK and have less incentive to go.
There’s a technical caveat to be aware of. Longer initial visas are often offered to best incomes. 35% of individuals earning £125,000 or more got a five-year visa from the start compared with just 12% of those earning under £75,000. This implies some high earners may have departed the UK before their visa really ended and the analysis believes the true stay rate for high earners is significantly lower than the headline data show.
Finding 5: Men Are Less Likely to Stay Than Women
Women on Skilled Worker visas were about five percentage points more likely to have lawful UK immigration status five years after they arrived than men. The regression analysis showed an odds ratio of 1.27 for women compared to men (statistically significantly greater odds).
The gap starts to open up within the first few years of immigration and then levels off at roughly six years, when most persons are eligible for settlement.
The MAC observes that the gender trend coincides somewhat with industry. In the overall sample, 61% of women are in human health and social work activities, compared with 32% of men. At present, main applicants cannot be connected to their dependants in the Home Office data, which may explain some of the gender discrepancy if women are more likely to migrate with children.
Finding 6: Location of Your Application Matters
People who applied for their Skilled Worker visa from within the UK (usually transferring from a student or graduate visa) were much more likely to be in valid status five years later than those who applied from outside the UK. The analysis yields an odds ratio of 0.71 for out of country applicants relative to in country applications.
This seems intuitively reasonable. Someone already in the UK has had time to build up language abilities, social networks and an idea of whether they want to stay. When they apply for a Skilled Worker visa, they have already made a positive decision to stay.
The data also demonstrates that the road to the Skilled Worker visa has altered over time.
Of those switching in-country between 2014 and 2020, 80% were switching directly from the Student visa route and 11% from the Tier 1 Post-Study route.
Of those who switched inside the country between 2021 and 2024, 54% switched from the Student route, 23% from the Graduate route, 6% from Intra-Company Transfer, 3% from the Youth Mobility Scheme and 2% were dependants.
In all, the proportion moving via student/graduate pathways dropped from 91% in the prior period to 77% from 2021 onwards.
Switching from a student or graduate visa to a Skilled Worker visa is a popular route, although the criteria around this can be difficult. Our Skilled Worker visa team deals with applications for new arrivals and in-country switchers. Book a session to talk about your route.
Finding 7: Country Nationality and Wealth Matter
Stay rates vary greatly by nationality. Migrants from the USA, China and South Africa had a lower likelihood of maintaining legal immigration status over time compared to migrants from Nigeria, Ghana and Bangladesh.
When the MAC plotted five-year stay rates against the affluence of the home nation of each migrant, measured by GDP per capita in purchasing power parity terms, it identified a trend. Those from affluent countries are less likely to stay, on average. GDP per capita alone explains 29% of the variation in stay rates by nationality (R^2=0.29).
But the bond is not absolute. Singapore is a fairly wealthy country, however its migrants have similar stay rates to those from South Africa and Sri Lanka.
The regression analysis classified nationalities by region. The odds ratios compared to non-EU European nations (reference group) were:
Migrants from Africa, Western Asia and Southern Asia have the highest relative stay rates (about or slightly below the European reference group). Migrants from Oceania (OR 0.30) and North America (OR 0.41) had the lowest relative odds.
Finding 8: Regional Inequalities in the UK
For people working in all nations and regions of the UK save the South East (79%), Yorkshire and the Humber (78%), Wales (78%) and Scotland (73%), the five-year stay rate is 80% to 83%.
This pattern is confirmed by regression analysis. All other UK nations and regions were less likely than London to retain migrants after five years. The lowest odds ratios were in Wales (0.72) and Scotland (0.76).
The MAC does not offer a strong reason for why Scotland and Wales retain migrants less well, and says this should be further studied in future studies. The drawback is that the location data is based on the employer’s registered address, not where the migrant actually lives or works day-to-day, thus remote and hybrid working could confound the image.
What This Means for Migrants and Sponsors
The study comes at a politically important time. The UK government is exploring plans for “earned settlement”, under which migrants would have shorter or longer routes to permanent residency depending on their earnings, language skills and other considerations. The 2025 Immigration White Paper also raised the skill threshold to graduation level (RQF 6), raised wage thresholds and closed adult social care applications from overseas.
Key Takeaways for Sponsor Licence Holders
- If you sponsor in health and social care, your workers are likely to commit to long periods. This is helpful for workforce planning but means compliance discipline matters even more. A compliance audit can help you keep up to date with your responsibilities.
- If you finance higher education or research you’ll have increased turnover. Short academic contracts and internationally mobile jobs mean that retention rates are substantially below other sectors.
- If you sponsor in high paying roles don’t think the income itself ensures retention. Data indicate higher incomes are more likely to move on.
- The increase in stay rates indicates that workers sponsored in recent years are more dedicated than those sponsored previously if you have shifted to more recent arrivals.
Key Takeaways for Skilled Worker Visa Holders
- The rules of settlement could change under the proposed “earned settlement” paradigm. The new rules could mean that higher earners and academics have to take lengthier pathways to settlement.
- One of the most common routes is to switch from a student or graduate visa to a Skilled Worker visa, and those who do that are statistically more likely to settle.
- Retention is now strongest for care workers and nurses, but policy adjustments in 2024 and 2025 have already started to tighten the care worker route.
The Skilled Worker path is evolving rapidly and the laws around sponsor licences, pay thresholds and settlement are not what they were even two years ago. If you are an employer checking your sponsor duties or a visa holder arranging your road to ILR then request a consultation with NARA Solicitors to explore your personal situation.
About the Migration Advisory Committee and This Report
The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) is an independent organization which advises the UK government on migration policy. This paper, ‘Who remains, who leaves? Evidence from administrative records on the Skilled Worker route’, was released 12 May 2026.
The MAC reviewed Home Office administrative records of 916,000 distinct migrant journeys. These were people who came to the UK as the principal applicant on a Tier 2 (General) visa, a Skilled Worker visa or a Health and Care Worker visa between 2014 and 2024. The study lumps all three together as “Skilled Worker visas”.
Researchers integrated three datasets: Migrant Journey data (which follows visa history of each individual), visa application data, and Certificate of Sponsorship (CoS) data (which contains information about the employer, job, and remuneration). They linked 97% of records effectively, with 888,000 out of 916,000 journeys having comprehensive demographic and employment parameters.
Keep in Mind Limitations
The MAC is explicit about some limits:
- “Stay” refers to a lawful immigration status, not to actual presence. Some may depart the UK before their visa runs out, some may overstay. The data do not distinguish these cases.
- The detailed regression study is limited for arrivals 2014 to 2019, all under the former Tier 2 (General) regime. The findings are not inherently transferable to those who entered under the post-2020 Skilled Worker path.
- Dependents not yet associated with the principal applicant. The analysis is confined to the primary visa holder and does not include family members.
- Deaths are not included in the data. Data counts a migrant as having left the UK if they die when in possession of a valid visa.
- Other Tier 2 categories such as Intra-Company Transfer, Sportsperson and Minister of Religion visas are not included.
Final Words
Who remains, who leaves? Evidence from administrative records on the Skilled Worker route, released 12 May 2026. Migration Advisory Committee.
Read the full report on gov.uk.